In the middle of 2009, there was an investigation done on current and future United States energy consumption by the Energy Information Administration. In their study, they predict that if federal policy remains constant from 2009 to the year 2035, fossil fuels will provide 78 percent of the total energy supply domestically in the year 2035. This statistic is shown in the figure below, which provides the data acquired in the EIA study.[4]
Based on the EIA projections, the fossil fuels coal, natural gas, and oil will produce 21 percent, 24 percent, and 33 percent, respectively, of total energy consumption for the U.S in the year 2035. Meanwhile, renewable energy is projected to increase only subtly, from 7 percent in the base year of 2009 to 10 percent in the year 2035.
By combining the current energy consumption portfolio for the U.S, the projected energy consumption portfolio in 2035 for the U.S, and the fact that global energy demand is expected to rise by 52% from the years 2002 to 2030 [5], it is likely that the current energy consumption profile can last in the short-term, but great environmental and economic dangers may ensue. In the long run, however it is very likely that the current energy consumption profile will not last.
The profile is very likely not to last long-term because of the implications that coal, natural gas, and oil have. Three significant problems are associated with the current energy status of large-scale burning of fossil fuels: emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), energy dependence on foreign countries, and a finite supply of these fuels.
The first main problem dealing with fossil fuels is the emission of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), which can create significant climate changes in the future. The GHGs that are most prevalent in the atmosphere generated by the burning of fossil fuels are Carbon Dioxide, Sulfur Dioxide, and Nitrogen Oxides. Together, these three chemicals work together in the atmosphere, leading to environmental problems like local pollution and acidification. Also, the emission of large levels of Carbon Dioxide likely leads to the Earth’s temperature heating up. If no actions are down now to reduce the GHG emissions, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts the average global temperature will likely rise 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. This increase in global average temperature has a chance to raise the sea level by one meter by the year 2100, meaning 40% of Bangladesh would be underwater.
Another problem is the dependence on foreign oil and natural gas and their health effects on United States citizens. Since the United States demand for natural gas and oil is extremely high, their volatile prices affect the whole macroeconomy. The long-term economic growth of the U.S has to be stable.
The third and last central problem to fossil fuel consumption is the finite supply of the materials. Simply put, it is an estimated 100 years until all fossil fuels will have run out.
As of now, the current energy consumption profile of the United States is dominated by fossil fuels. If there is no new federal legislature after 2009, the EPA predicts fossil fuels will still dominate the energy economy in the U.S in 2035. The three undermining problems that are at the heart of fossil fuels for energy production not only apply to the U.S, but the world as well. Therefore, it is strongly unlikely that the energy consumption profile for the world will last.
